...and for once, I'm 100 percent in agreement with a Twins front office release in that I too am "cautiously optimistic". As the Thesier article states, Liriano pushed his winter team (Leones del Escogido or "Lions of the Chosen One") into the playoffs and then posted a 3-1 record with 47 strikeouts, 5 walks and a .49 ERA in 47 innings. Those numbers are sick. But a couple questions remain unaddressed by the article.
First, what was Liriano's pitch velocity during the winter league? Prior to Tommy John surgery, Liriano's fastball was clocked in the mid to upper 90's and his slider the high 80's with ridiculous break. However, in the past two season after surgery, Liriano has struggled to get up past 92 with his fastball and his slider hasn't been even CLOSE to the dominating monster it was when he first burst onto the scene. This despite the fact that Twins management and executives assured the fans that he was making significant progress and that his velocity was at or near pre-surgery levels prior to last season (it wasn't close). Well, there may be something for Twins fans to take from his domination of the Dominican league, because according to non-Twins reports, his fastball velocity is around 95 this according to some Player Press and Advanced Fantasy, who just happen to call Frankie a "2010 Sleeper".
Second, is there any legitimate MLB talent in the Dominican Winter League or did Liriano just hose a bunch of high schoolers, long-shot prospects and big league rejects? Well, here is the Dominican Winter League site and the rosters for the league. It appears that there are many MLB names on the rosters. Now, it isn't the 1927 Yankees and "Murderers Row". However, it's pretty obvious that the hitters aren't just a bunch of scrubs hacking away without a clue. There are definite MLB talents holding the bats.
Third, we'll heard this type of "optimism" from the Twins executives and managers before. They were telling Twins fans similar things prior to last season: That he was getting up to 95 in velocity and that he was really "letting it go" in winter ball. Well, that proved to be unsubstantiated. He showed up in Spring Training without any jump on his pitches and he looked like dejected half of the time...head down...shoulders slumped...like a kid who's been told there won't be Christmas this year. At least this year there is some evidence to back up the claims.
Finally, where is Liriano's confidence in his repaired arm? Prior to surgery, Liriano's most devastating pitch was his slider. He was willing to throw it at any time during the count. In fact, his willingness to throw the pitch may have led to his injury in the first place. But last season, Liriano's slider wasn't effective. It had relatively little "late" break and hitters weren't fooled. Experts noted that he simply didn't throw his slider as hard last season...and it showed. If you want some nerdery regarding Liriano's "problems" you can check out this AWESOME blog post by Andrew Kneeland at Twinstarget.com. Specifically, it is the organizations tinkering with Liriano's throwing "style" (thinking his violent delivery was what caused the injury initially) and his inability to "let it go". According to Andrew, Liriano was, indeed, throwing his slider with reckless abandon this winter. His slider was reaching the upper 80's and his strikeouts per 9 innings was well over 11. He isn't going to get 47 strikeouts in 37 innings with just a fastball. All indications are that the "high-80's" slider also fooled some hitters...perhaps with some of that "late break". So will he do this during the season? Perhaps more succinctly...will Rick Anderson and Gardy ALLOW him to do it this season? I don't know that answer. But it's obvious that his slider is very good when he does. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that Mr. Gardenhire made a bad personnel decision. How about walks? Is his control better? Well, Liriano stayed in the single digits in walks over 37 innings with 5. FIVE! I think he walked five batters in one INNING at one point last year. He's either adjusted to the tinkering and brought his fastball under control, or has summoned the powers of black magic. Whatever it is, he's throwing more strikes.
So I think the numbers are legit. The Dominican League isn't a Busch league full of talentless pine-riders and he's really doing something different this winter. As a Twins fan, I know he won't be the guy who was making bats miss his slider by 18 inches in 2006. But I'm optimistic that he can now be a legitimate addition to our rotation or, at a very minimum, a solid set-up to Joe Nathan out of the bullpen.
